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Updated June 3, 2022
You have one bet to make on the 2024 US election for President — who’s the bet? Incumbent Joe Biden? Current VP Kamala Harris? Former President Donald Trump? Or new riser Ron DeSantis? We have your answer in this article if you keep reading.
Immediately, we’re going to rule out a whole group of candidates for our bet to win 2024 US President — and that’s ALL Democrats. Yes, skip bets on Biden, Harris, AOC, Obama, or anyone else associated with the blue party. That’s because they have a massive uphill climb to hold the Oval Office next year.
No matter your personal opinion, it’s not controversial to say that the country as a whole is struggling right now. Inflation is the highest it’s been since 1970. One more quarter of negative GDP growth means the US is officially in a recession. Gas prices keep soaring. We could go on, but you get the point — and are likely feeling it in your wallet. Whether fair or not, the Democrats will earn the lion’s share of the blame for this since they control Congress AND the White House.
That means the 2024 presidency is in the hands of the Republican Party. But who in it — the lightning rod Trump or the fast-rising DeSantis? Your 2024 futures bet should really come down to one or the other. Let’s break down each’s chances before making our own betting prediction.
The Case For DeSantis To Win In 2024
Before DeSantis can get on the 2024 ticket, he needs to take off business this year as he runs for re-election for Florida governor — a race he won by a meagre 32,000 votes in 2018 (which was surely helped by Trump’s endorsement at the time). However, DeSantis’ star is rising more than any other political figure in the whole country.
He’s shown zero fear in combatting the Biden administration and pro-left companies like Disney, which could help him earn votes from former Trump voters, who share similar sentiments. But perhaps what DeSantis has going most for him is, well, he’s not Trump. In a campaign, DeSantis could easily point to Trump’s failed promises from 2016 — building a “beautiful” wall along the Mexican border, “winning” the trade war, and “draining the swamp” — to position himself better.
Still, there’s no guarantee DeSantis runs in 2024. After all, he’s only 43 years old — not 75 like Trump. It might make more sense to run in 2028 when the candidacy is wide-open rather than risk it in 2024 versus Trump. This dilemma gives us cold feet about betting on DeSantis if we’re being honest because, unlike Trump, DeSantis doesn’t NEED a presidency right now.
The Case For Trump To Win In 2024
There’s a reason why Trump currently has the top Las Vegas odds to win the next presidential election. Whereas we think DeSantis can rally supporters, we KNOW Trump can. He successfully did so in 2016 and almost again in 2020. “Trumpers”, as his supporters are somewhat mockingly called, still exist in droves and Trump still holds rallies even post-White Office. However, Trump’s 2024 hopes will likely live and die from the more moderate or unsure voters.
Those same voters soured on him in 2020, largely due to his handling of COVID-19, which came at the end of a term filled with one drama after another. All those issues feel like distant memories right now, especially amid larger economic ones. But still, it’s really up to Trump to not “beat himself” again with needless controversy — which is easier said than done with Donny.
If we were Trump’s campaign manager, we fall back on the performance of the U.S. economy from Trump’s inauguration to early 2020, before the pandemic. It was, objectively, very high-performing. The unemployment rate was low. Asset prices mostly increased. And most importantly, record-level inflation wasn’t a thing. Right now, many Americans would cling to a return to that type of economy, which Trump can promise in his campaign.
While Trump has plenty of warts to overcome — two times being impeached, possibly leading the insurrection on the Capital, etc. — we still think he’s the best bet to win the 2024 election, crazily enough. As 2016 showed, Trump really is capable of overcoming almost anything thrown at him. He’s a once-in-a-generation political figure, which we just can’t bet against.
There are several other 2024 US election bets beyond just who outright wins. For instance, you can also bet on which candidate will represent both parties in the final November election. To get a full list of election-related odds, check out one of the sportsbooks listed below.
The great thing about these bookmakers is they offer a litany of deposit methods for making bets — bank wire, credit card, crypto, etc. — which means you can place bets within minutes of creating an account. Head to one of the sites to place your presidential wagers now, before the odds shift from what we’ve listed above.