Political betting is a huge betting market on both sides of the pond, and even though it looks a nailed-on certainty that Liz Truss will be the next UK Prime Minister when the results are confirmed next week, there are still plenty of betting markets offering value for some Politics betting picks.
Truss currently is unbackable. She is -3000 to be the next UK Prime Minister. Her one remaining rival, Rishi Sunak is +900.
But even now, there are still plenty of live betting markets on the outcome of the next Conservative Party leader.
First, a quick lesson on how the British constitution works. For those not in the know of UK politics, the next Conservative (Tory) Party leader, will become the next UK Prime Minister.
This isn’t a General Election. It is a dispute within the Conservative Party that has seen the party’s MPs oust their leader, Boris Johnson. And they are now voting on his replacement. Who will in turn, also become the next British Prime Minister?
The Conservative Party has gotten it down to two candidates, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak. The choice now is with the Conservative Party members to appoint a new party leader, with the results to be announced in the first week of September.
Currently, the opinion polls are showing Truss as miles ahead. Her vote percentage is expected to be in the 60 to 65% region. And that’s where the best online betting sites are now focusing their attention.
Some of the top online betting sites are offering a vote share market in sections. For example, will Truss get between 60% and 65%, or 66% to 70%, etc? But the betting we’re looking at is for the straightforward over/under market.
Liz Truss is believed to be the closer of the two candidates to Boris Johnson. And Johnson is still well-liked by Conservative Party members.
This makes it likely that she will win a larger share of the vote percentage. But with 64.5% being not far off a two-thirds majority, that seems a big ask to me.
Boris Johnson got 66.4% of the vote in 2019, and he was far more popular than Truss.
So I’m going for Liz Truss’ vote share to be under 64.5% for my betting pick.
Even though Boris Johnson is on his way out in the United Kingdom, political betting is still a big hit with the best online betting sites.
Big names like Boris Johnson leaving the arena will dampen enthusiasm. But in the USA, there is still the name of Donald Trump looming large.
Indeed, such is the political influence held by Trump, he is even listed as Donald Trump Sr in the betting odds on the next Presidential Election, due to the speculation that Donald Trump Jr may pick up the mantle.
While names like these lurking around, political betting will always be popular.
Such is the disarray in the Conservative Party and the fear of losing the next General Election in 2024; there is already chatter and speculation about whether Liz Truss is well equipped to lead the party into the General Election. And, more importantly, win it.
Such is the nature of MPs; if they fear losing their seat, they will change the leader. Just look at what happened to Boris Johnson.
With the next General Election set for May 2024, it’s rumoured that Truss has around 12 months to win the public over. Or she could face a similar fate next summer to Boris Johnson’s.
Provavelmente é improvável que o Partido Conservador mude o líder tão próximo a uma eleição geral.Mas nesses dias de incerteza política, quem sabe o que pode acontecer?Portanto, não descarte a possibilidade de isso acontecer novamente em breve.
Com o resultado do próximo líder do Partido Conservador ainda não é oficial, muitos livros esportivos puxaram suas apostas Mercados sobre quem vencerá as próximas eleições gerais no Reino Unido.Quando eles voltarem ao ar em breve, espere vê -lo olhando de perto entre os conservadores e o trabalho.
Devido ao cenário político da Grã -Bretanha, seria necessária uma grande mudança para ver assentos suficientes mudarem de mãos de conservador para trabalho para ver a vitória do trabalho.
Há uma boa possibilidade de que os conservadores não venham completamente, mas possam procurar formar um governo minoritário.Mas o básico é que, se Truss fizer um trabalho meio decente, ela provavelmente se apegará a assentos conservadores suficientes.O que deve ser suficiente para formar o próximo governo.
Portanto, se você acredita que Truss conquistará a minoria dos eleitores, ela precisa se apegar a muitos dos assentos necessários, então as probabilidades dos conservadores de formar o próximo governo após a eleição geral do Reino Unido de 2024 irão Provavelmente não fica muito melhor do que quando os mercados retornam.
Por outro lado, se você acredita que o custo da crise viva (atualmente ocorrido no Reino Unido) será responsabilizada pelo governo conservador, então pode valer a pena apoiar o trabalho.
Mas lembre -se de que, durante a recente pandemia, o público britânico, em geral, não responsabilizou o governo.
Então a treliça pode se animar com isso, o que fortalece suas chances de sucesso nas eleições gerais de 2024.
